The Prediction Paradox: Why We Are Terrible at Foresight But Cannot Stop Trying
1 December 2025
Step inside The Intuitive Advantage, a ten-part look at how intuition, AI, brand and experience are set to reshape 2026. This week, Future Platforms CEO and MAD//Fest host Livia Bernardini tackles The Prediction Paradox, our uncanny ability to get the future wrong, and our irresistible urge to keep guessing anyway.
Confessions of a reluctant fortune teller. I am not a futurologist. I have always been better at the mid term than the future, and after fifteen years indulging a small tarot hobby I grew to love, I have realised something useful. Tarot is not about reading the future because the future does not exist. Jodorowsky taught that the Tarot is a symbolic machine for self knowledge, not prophecy. Its purpose is to be useful.
It trains the reader to lower bias, gives perspective and highlights patterns that were already half known. In other words, it is a tool for intuition and intuition is often far more useful than certainty.
And yet here we are again. December arrives and I fall straight into the same trap, lured by trend reports, bold forecasts and confidently wrong LinkedIn diagrams.
I should know better. There is plenty of evidence that we have that dreadful human habit of misjudging how the future unfolds. We confuse trends with forecasts, noise with signals and wishful thinking with strategy.
We try to foresee what happens next even though the future has no interest in being tidy. This is the paradox. We are terrible at foresight. Yet we cannot stop trying.
Perhaps the attempt is the point. Prediction is really a prompt. It forces us to interrogate what we believe and what we might be ignoring. Predictions are not about accuracy. They are about attention. Where we choose to place our attention shapes the future we create.
Maybe uncertainty is the point, not the problem
Marketers love confidence. So do CTOs and tech leads. We are trained to sound certain even when we know the world behaves unpredictably. Yet most valuable decisions are made in fog, not sunshine.
This is not about long term versus short term. Overconfidence distorts everything equally. My preference for the mid term is practical. It is the zone where you can still influence reality without firefighting the immediate present or drifting into speculative fantasy. It is where attention and agency overlap.
What if uncertainty is not a defect but a strength. What if our job is not to eliminate unknowns, but to surf them with better instincts.
The best digital products do exactly this. They do not predict the future. They anticipate intention. They reinforce brand distinctiveness in a cloud of experiences that is becoming more samey by the day. They offer the right reminder, the right return option or the right friction at the right moment.
In 2026 micro moments will matter more than ever. Not because of magic, but because data foundations are finally maturing, pushed forward by the desire to implement AI after years of M&A consolidation, design system clean up and long overdue legacy rebuilds. Data that is clean, connected and governed will be more common and the foundation for AI that is distinctive rather than generic. These are the conditions that enable real personalisation and anticipatory guidance that still feels respectful rather than invasive.
The Competitive Edge of 2026 Will Be Emotional Choreography
What if brands treated utility and emotion as the same thing. Because the most impactful digital experiences in 2026 will be the ones that make life feel lighter, faster and more human. Not through prediction, but through micro attention.
Take mobility. When you open Google Wallet near a station at certain times, it quietly surfaces the ticket you are likely to need next. It is not predicting your future. It is noticing your context. Imagine the same instinctive intelligence applied to delays. Your train is three minutes late, so you can slow down rather than doing that awkward half run we all pretend is normal.
Or wellness. If Vinted can notify you when the price of something you like drops, a gym can surely tell you when the floor is unusually empty. A quiet gym in January means different things to different people. For some it is about not waiting for equipment. For others it is about not being watched while working off December. Both deserve ease. A practical nudge. A small emotional lift.
These moments reduce cognitive load. They create pockets of ease in days that are too full. They bring back something digital products have lacked for a decade and brands often forget. A sense of being looked after, not optimised.
The line between helpful and creepy is thin. In 2026 some people will worry loudly about who sees their data and why. Others will trade anything for convenience. The brands that win will behave like a friend, not a follower. Someone who notices, not someone who snoops.
This is intuitive digital product design. Not magic. Not prophecy. Just curiosity about what someone might need next. This is why the competitive edge of 2026 will not be another feature. It will be emotional choreography. The ability to turn data, context and judgement into experiences that are useful, human and unmistakably on brand.
The future is not predictable, but attention is trainable
Across the next two months we will explore how intuition, AI, brand and experience are reshaping value creation. You will hear stories, mistakes, gut calls, micro moments and brand led product lessons from the sectors that must rediscover relevance as the rules of connection shift in 2026. I will not tell you the future. I will simply share where I am paying attention.
Across the series you will walk away with a practical set of superpowers.
• How to tell the difference between a real signal and yet another industry vibe
• Why your gut sometimes outperforms your dashboard
• How to design experiences that feel unmistakably on brand and still legible for machines
• Why micro moments will matter more than macro narratives in 2026
• How to make AI feel like a partner instead of a passenger
Halfway through you will also get a small New Year’s Eve freebie. A playful little tool to help you set your attention for 2026. No predictions. Just clarity.
Next week we will unpack intuition, bias and the strange truth that your instinct often knows what your metrics will confirm months later. More useful than we admit. More trainable than we think.
And somewhere along the way you might be inspired with a prediction of your own, one you feel bold enough to defend on a MAD//Fest stage in 2026. I promise I will be kind. Especially if I am the one welcoming you on stage or moderating you.

